2027: Tinubu Leads as Politico.ng Projects Tight Presidential Race, Predicts 40% Voter Turnout

…projects APC, NDC, ADC to win 13, 13 and 11 states respectively

The Political Intelligence Group of Politico.ng, an online political news publication, has projected a closely contested 2027 presidential election, with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu maintaining a slim lead over former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.

The projection, contained in the November edition of the group’s electoral map, also forecasts a 40 per cent voter turnout, the highest in Nigeria’s electoral history, compared with the 29 per cent recorded in the last general election.

The group’s Publisher, Engr. Lai Omotola, disclosed this in his assessment of the evolving political landscape ahead of the 2027 general elections.

According to Omotola, the All Progressives Congress (APC), the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) have emerged as the three leading political parties, with campaigns already gaining momentum.

He noted that the political landscape had changed significantly, warning that politicians who approached the forthcoming elections with a “business as usual” mentality could face imminent defeat.

Omotola said the growing influence of young voters would be a major determining factor in the 2027 elections, noting that an estimated 68 million new voters were expected to participate for the first time, with the majority being youths.

He added that voters between the ages of 18 and 49 would dominate the election, making youth engagement and mobilisation critical to the electoral fortunes of political parties.

The November projection placed the APC, NDC and ADC in a closely contested race, with Tinubu leading by a narrow margin, Obi in second place and Atiku in third.

On the distribution of states, the group projected that the APC would win 13 states, the NDC 13 states and the ADC 11 states.

The APC is projected to sweep all South-West and North-Central states, while the NDC is expected to win all South-East and South-South states, alongside Kano State and the Federal Capital Territory.

The ADC, according to the projection, is expected to dominate the North-East and North-West, with the exceptions of Kano and Zamfara states.

The group, however, cautioned that its projection was subject to the conduct of a free and fair election.

Reviewing political developments in October 2026, Omotola identified the commencement of campaigns by the three leading parties, the controversy surrounding the Independent National Electoral Commission’s preliminary voters register and the APC’s inaugural campaign rally in Kaduna as major events shaping the political atmosphere.

He also cited the economic debate sparked by Atiku’s proposal for a return to fuel subsidy and the subsequent 30-day reduction in petrol prices by the Federal Government through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited as developments with potential electoral implications.

The group further observed that opposition parties were encountering stiff resistance in their campaigns, while internal disagreements within the APC could affect its electoral prospects.

In a related development, Omotola said these developments could influence the fortunes of all three leading parties in different ways as the race intensifies.

He called on political parties, electoral authorities and other stakeholders to prioritise peaceful conduct and ensure credible elections.

According to him, the 2027 general elections could represent a turning point for Nigeria’s democracy, adding that a peaceful, free and fair electoral process would be in the best interest of the country.

Omotola has said that the ruling of the Federal High Court in Abuja voiding the candidacy of the ADC presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, will cause distortion and a major setback to his electioneering campaign.

While briefing newsmen at his Maryland office, Omotola noted that the ruling could affect Atiku’s ability to continue campaigning, except where the court directs otherwise.

According to him, the ADC presidential candidate can proceed to the Court of Appeal and even the Supreme Court to nullify the ruling and secure the right to contest the 2027 presidential election.

Lai Omotola suggested that INEC must begin operating a 24-hour duty schedule if it is to deliver a free, fair, transparent and seamless election to Nigerians.

He warned that failure by INEC to organise a hitch-free and acceptable poll could portend anarchy for the nation.

On President Tinubu’s recent visit to Saudi Arabia, Omotola expressed the view that it would enhance the President’s profile, given the prominent role religion plays in the North compared with the southern parts of the country.

He noted that the country’s national colours, green, white and green, adorning the Kaaba, could signify the acceptability of Tinubu’s candidacy by a major Muslim country, which he described as a plus for the President.