Nigeria’s Petroleum Pricing Crisis: When Crude Oil Falls But Petrol Prices Refuse to Drop
By Bayo Beckley
Nigeria’s petroleum industry presents one of the most troubling contradictions in our national economy. We are a crude oil-producing nation, yet Nigerians continue to suffer the burden of high fuel prices as though the country has no oil, no refinery, no regulator and no duty to protect its citizens.
Recent developments in the international oil market have again exposed the weakness and opacity of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector. During the recent tension involving the United States, Israel and Iran, crude oil prices rose because of fears over possible supply disruptions in the Middle East, especially around the Strait of Hormuz. Predictably, any rise in crude oil prices is quickly used to justify increases in the domestic pump price of petrol.
However, now that global crude oil prices have fallen below $80 per barrel, Nigerians are yet to see a corresponding and meaningful reduction in pump prices. This raises a fundamental question: why does petrol price rise quickly when crude oil rises, but fall slowly—or not at all—when crude oil drops?
This is the injustice Nigerians are facing.
Available figures show that petrol prices in Nigeria rose significantly in recent months, moving from about ₦1,051 per litre in February 2026 to about ₦1,288 in March and over ₦1,500 in April. Yet, despite the recent fall in crude oil prices, the pump price remains painfully high. This gap between global market movement and local pump price reality deserves serious public scrutiny.
The major actors in Nigeria’s petroleum pricing environment include NNPC Limited, Dangote Refinery, major oil marketing companies such as MRS Oil, Ardova/AP, Heyden, TotalEnergies, Matrix, NIPCO and Conoil, as well as depot owners and marketers operating under associations such as MOMAN, IPMAN, DAPPMAN and PETROAN. These companies and associations may not play the same role, but their supply decisions, depot pricing, import arrangements, refining output, retail margins and public positions all influence the final price paid by Nigerians.
The regulator, NMDPRA, must also be held accountable. Deregulation should not mean disorder. Deregulation should not mean secrecy. Deregulation should not mean that consumers are abandoned to the mercy of powerful market players. A deregulated market without transparency and competition can easily become a market of exploitation.
The biggest problem is the lack of openness in petrol pricing. Nigerians are not regularly shown a clear breakdown of the ex-refinery price, landing cost, depot price, transport cost, regulatory charges, taxes, exchange-rate assumptions, marketer margins and final pump price. Without this information, citizens cannot determine whether they are paying a fair market price or an inflated price protected by silence.
There is also a growing concern about market concentration. If a few powerful suppliers and depot owners are able to influence supply and pricing, then competition becomes weak. A deregulated market without true competition can be more harmful than a regulated market because it gives private interests the power to determine the suffering of millions.
NNPC Limited must explain its current role clearly. Is it operating mainly as a commercial trader, or does it still carry a national responsibility for energy security? Dangote Refinery, as a major emerging player, must also embrace pricing transparency. Marketers and depot owners must justify their margins. Above all, the regulator must publish clear and regular pricing templates for public review.
The consequences of the present fuel pricing system are severe. High petrol prices increase transport fares, food prices, school fees, generator costs, business expenses and the overall cost of living. Every unjustified increase at the pump is transferred to the poor, the worker, the farmer, the transporter, the student, the teacher, the small business owner and the struggling parent.
The way forward is clear.
First, NMDPRA should publish a transparent weekly petrol pricing template showing crude oil price, exchange rate, refining cost, depot price, transport margin, taxes, marketer margin and the expected fair pump price range.
Second, the Federal Government must ensure real competition in the downstream sector. No single refinery, importer, depot network or marketers’ association should be allowed to dominate price direction.
Third, NNPC Limited, Dangote Refinery and other major suppliers should publish their ex-depot or ex-refinery prices regularly so Nigerians can see how prices are determined.
Fourth, the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission should investigate possible anti-consumer practices, including price coordination, hoarding, artificial scarcity and market manipulation.
Fifth, local refining should be encouraged, but not in a way that creates a private monopoly. Nigeria needs multiple strong refineries, functional pipelines, secure depots, efficient logistics and fair access for marketers.
Finally, deregulation must be made to serve the people. The purpose of reform is not to replace government monopoly with private monopoly. The purpose of reform is to create efficiency, fairness, transparency, competition and relief for citizens.
Fuel price is not merely an economic matter; it is a social justice issue. It affects food, transportation, education, health care, production and survival. Nigerians cannot continue to bear the pain of a system where global crude oil prices fall but domestic petrol prices remain high.
The petroleum industry must be opened up. The figures must be published. The powerful players must be held accountable. The regulator must defend the consumer. And pump prices must begin to reflect global realities without delay.
Nigeria deserves a petroleum market that is transparent, competitive, fair and humane.
By
Pastor Bayo Beckley
FCA, FCIB, MSC
