Nigeria: Close of year accounting – sequencing from reform to relief
By Sunday Dare
As 2025 draws to a close, President Bola Tinubu’s administration presents Nigerians with not rhetoric, but a measurable accounting of progress-one that is increasingly visible and relatable in everyday life, not just in macroeconomic charts.
Year 2025 was one of deliberate, sometimes difficult, reforms. Today, those reforms are beginning to yield stabilisation, easing prices, and renewing confidence across the economy.
What it means for households and businesses?
After eight consecutive months of decline, headline inflation eased to 14.45% in November 2025. This matters because it slows the pace at which prices of food, transport, and household essentials rise. Food inflation has also entered a downward trend, offering gradual relief in markets and retail outlets nationwide.
Fuel prices – one of the most visible cost drivers for households – have now stabilised and begun to ease. Petrol currently sells at around ₦845 per litre by NNPCL, while private refiner–owned filling stations are selling below ₦800 per litre in several locations. This moderation has reduced transport costs, eased pressure on food prices, and improved cost planning for businesses and families alike.
The foreign exchange market has steadied, supported by external reserves of $44.56 billion. For Nigerians, this translates into fewer sudden currency swings, lower imported inflation, and more predictable pricing for essentials such as medicines, school supplies, and manufactured goods.
GROWTH WITHOUT ILLUSIONS
Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.98% in Q3 2025, driven largely by the non-oil sector. This growth reflects real activity in agriculture, services, manufacturing, and trade—sectors that create jobs and sustain livelihoods.
Business confidence has followed the same trajectory. The Purchasing Managers’ Index recorded 12 consecutive months of expansion, signalling increased production, restocking, and hiring across supply chains.
Investor confidence has also returned. A massively oversubscribed Eurobond issuance—four times the $2.3 billion target—demonstrated renewed international belief in Nigeria’s reform path, reducing future borrowing costs and strengthening fiscal buffers.
Infrastructure and power: lowering costs at the base
Record power generation, the rollout of the Presidential Metering Initiative, and decisive action on legacy power-sector debt are all directed at reducing the hidden “generator tax” Nigerians pay daily. More reliable electricity lowers production costs for small businesses and reduces household spending on diesel and petrol.
In parallel, over ₦1.5 trillion committed to road infrastructure – including the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and the Sokoto-Badagry Super Highway.
Security, confidence, and the social contract
Security outcomes, including the successful rescue of all abducted schoolchildren in Niger State, reflect a more coordinated national security architecture – critical for farming communities, logistics corridors, and investor confidence.
Internationally, Nigeria exited the FATF Grey List, regained key strategic seats, and secured major health and trade partnerships – steps that reinforce institutional credibility and global trust.
Looking ahead to 2026
The ₦58.18 trillion “Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity” anchors the next phase. With record capital expenditure, the largest-ever allocation to security, and prudent revenue assumptions, the focus now shifts from stabilisation to acceleration.
BOTTOM LINE
2025 was about restoring balance and credibility. The early dividends—slowing inflation, easing fuel prices, steadier foreign exchange, and rising confidence – are now visible.
2026 is positioned to be the year these gains are felt more deeply, more broadly, and more permanently.
Nigeria is not yet where it intends to be – but it is decisively no longer where it was.
– Dare, CON is the Special adviser Media and public communications to the President of Nigeria.
