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<\/p>\nPresident Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been projected to emerge victorious in the 2027 presidential election, with a new political forecast giving him 20 states against nine for former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and eight for NDC candidate Peter Obi.<\/p>\n
The projection was made by the Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng, which assessed the current political landscape and projected how the three major political figures could perform if the presidential election were conducted under the circumstances prevailing at the moment.<\/p>\n
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According to the projection, Tinubu would have a clear advantage over his major rivals, although the group acknowledged that the political situation could change significantly before the actual election.<\/p>\n
The forecast places Tinubu strongly in the South-West while also giving him important victories outside the region. Atiku is projected to maintain considerable strength across parts of Northern Nigeria, while Obi is expected to retain support in selected areas where he performed strongly during the 2023 presidential election.<\/p>\n
Tinubu Projected to Win 20 States<\/p>\n
According to PIG, Tinubu is currently projected to win 20 states, making him the leading candidate in the forecast.<\/p>\n
The president is expected to dominate the South-West, with all six states in the region projected to fall into his column. The region remains politically significant because of its voting strength and Tinubu’s long-standing political influence there.<\/p>\n
Tinubu is also projected to win Lagos State in the 2027 presidential election. This would mark a change from the 2023 presidential election, when Tinubu lost Lagos State to Peter Obi.<\/p>\n
The latest projection says that Tinubu would regain the state in 2027. Lagos has been central to his political career and remains one of the country’s most important electoral territories.<\/p>\n
The inclusion of Kano among the states projected to go to Tinubu is one of the more striking aspects of the forecast. Kano is one of Nigeria’s largest states by voting population and has traditionally been an important battleground during presidential elections.<\/p>\n
A victory in Kano would provide Tinubu with a major northern foothold and could strengthen his ability to build a broad national coalition beyond his traditional South-West base.<\/p>\n
Tinubu’s eventual performance, however, could depend heavily on how Nigerians assess his administration by 2027.<\/p>\n
Economic conditions, inflation, employment, security, infrastructure and the cost of living could influence voters’ decisions. The administration’s policies and its ability to communicate its achievements may also become important campaign issues.<\/p>\n
Religion and ethnicity could also play a role in the political calculations. Nigeria’s voting patterns are sometimes influenced by regional, ethnic and religious considerations, although these factors compete with economic and political issues.<\/p>\n
Atiku Projected to Win 9 States<\/p>\n
PIG projects that Atiku Abubakar would win nine states in the 2027 presidential election.<\/p>\n
The former vice president is expected to perform strongly in Northern Nigeria, with Kaduna State projected to go to him alongside several states in the North-East and North-West.<\/p>\n
Atiku’s strength in the region could be connected to his established political network and his previous presidential campaigns. His ability to mobilise support across northern states could make him one of Tinubu’s strongest competitors in the region.<\/p>\n
Another issue that could influence Atiku’s support is his position on fuel subsidy.<\/p>\n
Atiku has advocated a review of the current fuel subsidy policy and has spoken about measures aimed at reducing the burden of petrol prices on Nigerians. If the high cost of transportation and living remains a major concern by 2027, such a promise could appeal to voters who want immediate relief from rising household expenses.<\/p>\n
However, the fuel subsidy debate is likely to be more complicated than simply promising cheaper petrol.<\/p>\n
Voters may want to know where the money required to fund the subsidy would come from and whether restoring or expanding the policy would be financially sustainable. Questions surrounding government revenue, public spending and the opportunity cost of subsidy payments could therefore become major campaign issues.<\/p>\n
Religion and ethnicity may also influence Atiku’s support in some areas, particularly where regional identity remains politically important. However, these factors cannot be assumed to determine how every voter will behave.<\/p>\n
The strength of Atiku’s campaign could ultimately depend on whether he can combine his northern support with meaningful backing from other parts of the country.<\/p>\n
Obi Projected to Win 8 States<\/p>\n
Peter Obi is projected to win eight states, according to the Politico.ng forecast.<\/p>\n
The projection also places the Federal Capital Territory in Obi’s column. Edo State is another state where the Labour Party candidate is expected to emerge victorious.<\/p>\n
Obi’s projected support reflects the political base he developed during the 2023 presidential election, when he performed strongly in several parts of the country.<\/p>\n
His campaign has continued to appeal particularly to voters seeking political change and a different approach to governance. Economic management, accountability, public spending and the need for greater efficiency in government are likely to remain central to his political message.<\/p>\n
However, Obi’s challenge could be expanding his support beyond the areas where he has historically performed strongly.<\/p>\n
The 2027 election is expected to be highly competitive, and the emergence of new political alliances could significantly change the distribution of votes.<\/p>\n
If opposition parties eventually cooperate or form a coalition, the calculations surrounding Tinubu, Atiku and Obi could change dramatically. Likewise, defections, the choice of running mates and the strength of party structures could influence the final outcome.<\/p>\n
Religion and ethnicity could also feature in the contest, particularly as politicians seek to build geographically and demographically balanced tickets. Nevertheless, voters could also prioritise issues such as economic hardship, security, employment and government performance.<\/p>\n
Projection Could Still Change<\/p>\n
PIG’s forecast should not be interpreted as the final result of the 2027 presidential election.<\/p>\n
The group reportedly indicated that if the election were held in September under the political circumstances currently prevailing, the APC would win.<\/p>\n
Under that scenario, Tinubu would secure 20 states, Atiku would win nine, while Obi would take eight.<\/p>\n
However, the actual election is still ahead, giving the major political players considerable time to change the current political equation.<\/p>\n
The economy could improve or deteriorate. Petrol prices could become a bigger or smaller issue. New alliances could emerge, and candidates could gain or lose popularity.<\/p>\n
The debate over fuel subsidy could become particularly important if Nigerians continue to struggle with transportation costs and the broader cost of living. Atiku’s position could therefore become a significant campaign talking point, while Tinubu would likely defend the economic direction of his administration.<\/p>\n
Beyond economic issues, regional interests, religion, ethnicity and political identity are likely to remain part of the broader electoral calculations.<\/p>\n
For now, however, the Politico.ng projection places Tinubu in the strongest position with 20 states, followed by Atiku with nine and Obi with eight.<\/p>\n
The coming months and eventual campaign season will determine whether those numbers remain intact or whether Nigeria’s political landscape produces another major realignment before voters finally head to the polls in 2027.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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