{"id":18537,"date":"2025-11-17T07:13:39","date_gmt":"2025-11-17T07:13:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thenewsnow.org\/?p=18537"},"modified":"2025-11-17T07:15:11","modified_gmt":"2025-11-17T07:15:11","slug":"cynicism-and-the-impregnable-wall-can-nigerians-rescue-2027","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thenewsnow.org\/index.php\/2025\/11\/17\/cynicism-and-the-impregnable-wall-can-nigerians-rescue-2027\/","title":{"rendered":"Cynicism And The \u2018Impregnable Wall\u2019: Can Nigerians Rescue 2027?"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Dakuku Peterside, PhD.<\/a><\/p>\n

After every election in Ni\u00adgeria\u2014especially the con\u00adtentious ones\u2014a familiar chorus rises: \u201cThey will rig it.\u201d \u201cNothing will change.\u201d Follow\u00ading the recent off-cycle governorship polls, this chorus has grown louder. On the streets, in offices, and across social media, many Nigerians have already written off the 2027 general elections as a lost cause. The potential impact of the 2027 general elections on Nigeria\u2019s future is straightforward and devastating: the system is irre\u00addeemably rigged and talk of reform is futile.<\/p>\n

In a recent keynote address titled \u201cMaking Our Votes Count: Action, the Antidote to Cynicism,\u201d Dr Sam Ama\u00addi, Director of the Abuja School of So\u00adcial and Political Thought, pinpointed the real threat this attitude poses. \u201cThe gravest threat to free and fair elections in Nigeria in 2027,\u201d he argued, \u201cis not a corrupt INEC, nor a compromised judiciary, nor partisan security agen\u00adcies. The true threat is our belief that nothing can change\u2014a crippling hope\u00adlessness that breeds either inaction or reactive efforts that accomplish very little.\u201d The need for action to combat this cynicism is urgent.<\/p>\n

This cynicism is rooted in histori\u00adcal trends. It sits atop what many per\u00adceive as an impregnable wall blocking meaningful electoral reform. At the heart of this wall is a National As\u00adsembly that has repeatedly shown little appetite for reforms that reduce incumbents\u2019 advantages or improve electoral outcomes. \u201cThe Presiden\u00adcy under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has thus far given no clear indication that electoral reform is a priority. Unlike former Presidents Jonathan and Buhari, who at least submitted amendment bills or estab\u00adlished review committees, this ad\u00administration has done nothing about electoral reform,\u201d Dr Amadi bluntly noted. Instead, it has \u201cworsened the environment of electoral integrity by making partisan appointments into the electoral management body.\u201d<\/p>\n

These pillars are surrounded by other blocks: opposition parties too weak or disorganised to provide sustained oversight or viable alter\u00adnatives; a judiciary that often usurps the role of voters while upholding questionable polls; INEC operatives benefiting from the status quo; and a civil society and electorate oscil\u00adlating between outrage and resigna\u00adtion. Together, these elements form a wall convincing many Nigerians that profound change before 2027 is impossible.<\/p>\n

To grasp why cynicism has spread so profoundly, we must confront an uncomfortable truth: elections in Nigeria have, for much of our his\u00adtory, been manipulated, Dr Amadi asserted. Free and fair polls have of\u00adten been the exception, not the rule. Even the two elections commonly hailed as credible\u2014June 12, 1993, and 2015\u2014were flawed. They are remembered positively mainly be\u00adcause their outcomes aligned with public expectations or resulted in in\u00adcumbent defeats. Election observer reports show that the 2015 election, for example, suffered serious irregu\u00adlarities, especially where electronic card readers failed and \u201cbogus re\u00adsults\u201d were declared.<\/p>\n

This is not just a Nigerian phe\u00adnomenon; it is an African one. Many post-colonial states were founded on fragile, exclusionary institutions and unequal political economies. In such contexts, political office is not just service; it is often the primary path to wealth, status, and security. As Amadi notes, the \u201ceconomic and social benefits of winning an election and the enormous costs of losing it\u201d raise the stakes so high that elections easily become battles. Where politics is war, \u201call is fair,\u201d and rigging be\u00adcomes rational. Paul Collier warned that when elections are criminalised, \u201conly criminals will be involved.\u201d That harsh reality continues to haunt many African democracies.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Prof. Amupitan<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It is no surprise, then, that increas\u00ading numbers of young Africans are disillusioned with democracy itself. Many, having not lived through past military brutality, romanticise recent coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, or Ni\u00adger as quick fixes to civilian failures. Even respected elders like former President Olusegun Obasanjo have publicly questioned whether liberal democracy suits African realities. In this climate, one might ask: Why should a Nigerian in 2025 care about free and fair elections in 2027?<\/p>\n

The answer lies in what elections achieve when they function reason\u00adably well. Beyond ideals and slogans, credible elections serve two crucial purposes. First, they create incen\u00adtives for leaders to listen. Presidents, governors, and legislators who know they can be \u201ceasily voted out\u201d have stronger reasons to respond to pub\u00adlic concerns. This doesn\u2019t guarantee good governance, but without this pressure, accountability becomes nearly impossible.<\/p>\n

Second\u2014and perhaps more vital in Nigeria\u2019s context\u2014is that elec\u00adtions serve as a conflict-manage\u00adment mechanism. Political theorist Adam Przeworski argues that elec\u00adtions aren\u2019t perfect decision-making tools; they are frameworks allowing people with different views to \u201cstrug\u00adgle peacefully\u201d over governance. In Nigeria\u2019s deeply pluralistic society\u2014 marked by ethnic, religious, and regional divisions\u2014this minimal function is crucial. When elections are seen as hopelessly rigged, political actors resort to violence, secessionist rhetoric, or military intervention as the only paths to power.<\/p>\n

If the stakes are this high, why are Nigerians sinking into cynicism rath\u00ader than action? One reason lies in how the current administration has han\u00addled the electoral question. As Amadi notes, President Tinubu has neither spoken convincingly on electoral re\u00adform nor taken visible steps toward it. Public perception is made worse by partisan appointments: \u201cFor the first time in a long while,\u201d nearly everyone involved in election management\u2014 from INEC to security agencies and the judiciary\u2014appears tied to the President by ethnicity or political alliance. The mood is summed up in a familiar refrain: \u201cTinubu is not Jon\u00adathan\u2026 Tinubu is not a gentleman, oo. Tinubu is Jagaban.\u201d<\/p>\n

Yet cynicism presents only a par\u00adtial picture. It downplays pockets of progress and the power that organ\u00adised citizens still wield. Nigeria\u2019s elec\u00adtions are not universally worse. Logis\u00adtically and technologically, genuine improvements have emerged: fewer complaints about late materials, few\u00ader incidents of premature results dec\u00adlaration, and electronic accreditation has limited turnout inflation. These are signs that change is possible, and hope should not be lost.<\/p>\n

The challenge is that the sys\u00adtem adapts. New technologies have spawned new forms of manipulation. During the 2023 presidential election, INEC allegedly circulated the wrong passwords, making it impossible to upload results electronically. Result sheets were tampered with, and trust was broken. In the Edo governorship poll, opposition voices accuse INEC of declaring outright \u201cfake results.\u201d Technology strengthened parts of the process but did not eliminate human agency or political pressure. However, with collective action, we can counter these manipulations and ensure a fair electoral process.<\/p>\n

This makes the recent appoint\u00adment of Prof. Joash Amupitan as INEC Chairman all the more sig\u00adnificant. Former National Human Rights Commission chair Prof. Chidi Odinkalu describes Amupitan as \u201ca person of basic decency and integri\u00adty\u201d who would not preside over mul\u00adtiple conflicting results. However, Odinkalu warns that integrity alone may not suffice. INEC operates in a complex bureaucracy where \u201cno se\u00adnior politician\u2014from the presidency to state governors\u2014does not have a plant.\u201d<\/p>\n

Amupitan faces the test of navigat\u00ading these \u201cmultiple principalities.\u201d Upcoming governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun will serve as \u201celec\u00adtoral laboratories\u201d to observe his approach and how citizens, parties, and the judiciary respond. Nigerians are watching.<\/p>\n

But watching alone is not enough. If rigging is a \u201cmanufactured out\u00adcome,\u201d then it can be countered by de\u00adliberate, strategic action. Amadi calls for an \u201celection integrity defense sys\u00adtem\u201d with four pillars: INEC, political parties, civil society, and the judiciary.<\/p>\n

At INEC, the focus must be on institutional integrity\u2014developing and enforcing clear rules, ensuring meaningful participation by parties and observers, pursuing legal action against irregularities, and supporting reformist staff who resist political in\u00adterference.<\/p>\n

For political parties, especially op\u00adposition ones, the challenge is to re\u00adclaim vigilance rather than outsource it to NGOs. Parties are the primary beneficiaries of credible elections, yet often neglect mandate protection, fail to train polling agents, and replicate bad practices internally. They must build internal democracy and exter\u00adnal oversight to champion voters\u2019 rights genuinely.<\/p>\n

The judiciary sits at a dangerous crossroads. Courts now decide elec\u00adtion outcomes but often impose im\u00adpossible evidentiary burdens while INEC withholds essential documents. Lawyers, the media, professional bodies, and citizens must demand reforms to electoral adjudication procedures and hold judges morally accountable for decisions that under\u00admine popular will.<\/p>\n

None of this is easy. It is simpler to laugh bitterly on election day and stay home than to join a party, serve as an agent, support litigation, or engage in detailed discussions about electoral reforms. Cynicism is the cheaper, short-term option, but it\u2019s far more dangerous. It hands victory to those who profit from rigging, without re\u00adquiring any effort on their part.<\/p>\n

The 2027 election will be decided not only at polling units but by what Nigerians do\u2014or fail to do\u2014between now and then. Will the country con\u00adtinue repeating that nothing can change? Or will Nigerians act as though their votes and their future still matter?<\/p>\n

*Dr Dakuku Peterside is the author of Leading in a Storm and Beneath the Surface<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Dakuku Peterside, PhD. After every election in Ni\u00adgeria\u2014especially the con\u00adtentious ones\u2014a familiar chorus rises: \u201cThey will rig it.\u201d \u201cNothing<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18444,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18537","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thenewsnow.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18537","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thenewsnow.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thenewsnow.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thenewsnow.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thenewsnow.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18537"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thenewsnow.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18537\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18540,"href":"https:\/\/thenewsnow.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18537\/revisions\/18540"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thenewsnow.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18444"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thenewsnow.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18537"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thenewsnow.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18537"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thenewsnow.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18537"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}